The Brexit Gamble
Is it going to be a Brexit election where people will be voting in order to impact a specific outcome? The next election is like a roulette table with political chips waged to decide the future of the nation.
It is the third election since 2015 as Brexit continues to take its toll on the political establishment and the general public who now had enough, or have they? The incumbent PM, Boris Johnson argued that it is “time for the country to come together” as he promised to get Brexit done with. But his colleagues in Westminster had other ideas. So, where do the main parties stand in the next General Election on 12th December 2019?
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Conservatives
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Divorce Status: Cut ties asap with current deal and move on to bachelor status Plan: The Conservatives have a deal on the table from Brussels. They want Brexit down with. They are hoping that the General Election will urge people to vote for them and gain an outright majority to pass through the deal in parliament. They are opposed to another referendum. |
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Labour
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Divorce Status: Mediation with their own deal with an option to stay married. Plan: The Labour Party wants to renegotiate the deal with Brussels and possibly lead to another referendum with a possibility of an option to Remain still on the table. They want to keep the UK in the customs union within the EU. |
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Liberal Democrat
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Divorce Status: No divorce, bad for the kids. Plan: Still adamant to Remain as anything kind of break up will be bad for Britain. They would like to have another referendum |
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Green Party
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Divorce Status: No divorce, bad for the kids. Plan: Similar to the Liberal Democrats. Would like to Remain and hold another referendum. |
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Scottish National Party
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Divorce Status: Never wanted the divorce and wants its own independence and renegotiate back in the arms of the EU. Plan: Scotland voted to remain in the Referendum and thus it wants an independence referendum and continue its relationship with the EU. |
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Plaid Cymru
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Divorce Status: No divorce, bad for the kids. Plan: The Welsh independence party would like to cancel Brexit. |
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Democratic Unionist Party
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Divorce Status: Cut ties asap as long as no barriers between them and the extended family. Plan: Same as the Tories, hence the alliance. But the sticking point is that there should not be any barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. |
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Sinn Fein
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Divorce Status: No divorce and want to build a special relationship with the extended family. Plan: They want to Remain and want a special relationship with the EU via the Republic of Ireland. But as they do not take up their seats in the House of Commons, their votes may be irrelevant. |
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Brexit Party
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Divorce Status: The interfering family members who want the divorce to happen and will help in any way they can. Plan: They have no seats in Parliament, but they can cause collateral damage by standing in areas where Labour could be damaged. |
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The Independent Group for Change
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Divorce Status: Mediation with the whole family deciding whether to divorce or stay together. Plan: Campaigning for a people’s vote as the politician can be relied on to make such a mammoth decision. |
So, where does this take us?
In the event of no clear majority of either of the big parties, it is likely that the Conservatives will be aligned with the DUP and the Labour Party can link up with a host of the smaller parties. But Jeremy Corbyn has many enemies within the political circles, so it will be a difficult marriage if Labour does come to power.
Other than Brexit, there will be other key issues that people are looking out for before the ballot. This includes the future of the NHS, workers’ rights, immigration, education etc… For many of these issues, both the main parties are offering all kinds of spending which are going to mean the days of austerity are over. But it is the Brexit issue that could lead most people to vote in a particular way.
On the other hand, there is also the underlying anti-Semitism and anti-India issue that the Labour party faces which could mean ethnic community voting in blocks. The Muslim vote is most like to go to the Labour Party. The Dharmic vote or Indian vote and Jewish Vote is most like to go to the Conservatives. The smaller parties should also gain, but the big shift to decide Brexit will mean that it is a two-title race on one major issue. Let us see how the details in the upcoming manifestos have any impact?
